The Art of War: On analysis

Millennia ago, an Chinese general, Sun Tzu, wrote the ultimate guide on how to wage war. This book is just as relevant in today’s world as it was then. In this series aimed at experienced campaigners, we look at a verse every week, to gain a higher understanding of how to trample our opponents underfoot in a blaze of delicious glory.

Country in which there are precipitous cliffs with torrents running between, deep natural hollows, confined places, tangled thickets, quagmires and crevasses should be left with all possible speed and not approached. [AoW 9:15]

The short of this is that we should be constantly analysing the ‘battlefield’, and choosing open, fertile ‘ground’ to battle in. If we find ourselves in ‘terrain’ which gives an advantage to the enemy, or inconveniences both ourselves and the enemy, we should remove ourselves from it ASAP.
While thats easy to say, actually realising it in the height of a busy campaign is something quite different…

We must start by realising the similarities and differences between Sun Tzu’s battlefield and our own. Just as his army moves into new territory with different challenges, the circumstances in which we campaign are continually changing. Where the Chinese General could oversee his troops movements and see where his flanks were in unfavourable ground, we cannot use our eyes, so must continually analyse our position. Where his battles were fought over hours, ours can last for months. Sun Tzu had a clear cut battlefield – we must define our ground ourselves, crafting the terrain on which we fight – from the perceptions, emotions and aspirations of the British public.

The first step to being able to avoid bad territory is found in the initial planning stages of the campaign. We perform a PEST analysis, looking at the political, economic, social and technological realm which we are to campaign in. We can see if we are entering hostile territory, or if we will be welcomed. We can see if there is the money to enact our financial requests, we can observe the national mood and the constraints we must work on.
The deceptively difficult task, once this information has been used to plot our route, is being able to fluidly adjust our plans at a moments notice as and when the landscape changes.
As we are all aware, ‘A week is a long time in politics’. The political landscape can change rapidly, with formerly receptive governments slamming the door on campaigners at a moments notice because of ‘public mood’. We must be able to take this in our stride and find other ways round the wall.
Sometimes, an opportunity can arise and we must be able to take advantage of this immediately.

When previously sturdy ground underfoot becomes quicksand, what can we do?
The simple answer is to not let it get that far. Regular planning meetings and refresher PEST reports can help understand and predict shifts in public opinion and government policy, but you must be fearless and thorough.

If there is any likelihood of an event occurring, you must plan for it.

If a report is expected during your campaign which you think will turn public favour towards you, you must also plan for it doing the opposite.

Sometimes, events will take place which shake your world.

Imagine what it must have been like to be campaigning for Muslim integration in September 2001. Everything you have worked for is turned over by a sudden outpouring of racist bile on both sides. However, in the UK, the Islamic lobby were very shrewd. They used the backlash to show that integration was now more important than ever. They effectively distanced the Muslim community from the extremists, and in doing so, protected their work and secured substantial extra funding for their work.

During the Civil Partnerships debate, the previously helpful government slammed the door in the faces of those asking for Gay Marriage.
Instead of falling apart, the LGBT activists set to work in the backrooms. They lobbied the then leader of the opposition, David Cameron, and changed his view on marriage equality to be supportive. The fact he was, at the time, trying to ‘de-toxify’ the brand of his party helped them, as well as the natural position of the opposition – opposing the government. They set to work in the European Court of Human Rights, challenging the government – and they used the public anger at the government to their favour.
Now, 3 years on, a formal consultation is to be launched to begin the process of equalising marriage laws by 2015.

Every problem has a solution inherent in it, just as every coin has a head or a tail – you just have to change your thinking and flip the coin over.

If you find yourself in unhelpful terrain, the best way to get out of it is to utilise the solution inherent in the situation – but try not to fall in the pond in the first place!

 

For this article, I referred to ‘The Art of War’ by Sun Tzu, displayed brilliantly with useful footnotes at suntzusaid.com. I use the ‘random’ button when deciding what to cover!

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